There’s been a lot of talk about Xbox's future lately, and I can understand why. By Phil Spencer's own admission, Microsoft "lost" the last generation, ceding the ground it had built up in the 360 era as the Xbox One's gimmicks and games misfired while Sony solidified the PlayStation as the dominant console in pop culture and the destination for premium, exclusive experiences you won't find anywhere else. With this new generation, Xbox sharply changed tactics. The introduction of Game Pass and the cheaper Series S model saw it make a play as the people's console, while it has been biding its time on exclusives with major acquisitions. Sony has mostly stood still so far this gen, yet somehow it has opened up a wider cultural lead.
The reason for that is simple - Xbox has no games. That's the chorus being sung out on the terraces. Sony has continued with its prestige releases through Miles Morales, Horizon Forbidden West, and God of War Ragnarok, and even though those were cross-gen, they still prove that PlayStation is the console with the games. Xbox has some hits it can point to - the surprise drop of Hi-Fi Rush is the second highest rated game this year, second only to Resident Evil 4 Remake, while Forza Horizon 5 won huge acclaim.
However, this is a mid-level game with decent buzz but mostly unheard of outside of the most committed gamers, and a racing title that by design has a ceiling on its appeal. Halo Infinite, Xbox's biggest hitter, had a campaign that was liked enough but fell in the shadow of what came before, and its live-service elements twitched with death from the moment it arrived. Most recently, Xbox's premium exclusive was Redfall, made by beloved studio Arkane and, in a testament to Xbox's advantages over Sony, released for free on Game Pass rather than at the princely sum of $70.
Unfortunately, Redfall was bad. Not just a little rough, or not my cup of tea, but bad. Probably the worst game of the year, relative to its budget and promotion. It was a disaster, and had it been only okay, would have been another entry in Xbox's long line of only okay games. Instead, it seems to have poisoned any enthusiasm the general public had for Xbox's games, and it's not hard to see why.
The next game on the horizon (not Forza) is Starfield, which now has a bit more pressure piled on top of it. But all it needs to be is great. That's perhaps easier said than done for Xbox right now, but if Starfield arrives and gets something around 85 on Metacritic, all of the problems Xbox has cease to exist. Xbox's biggest problem is perception. Starfield getting 85 turns the tide of that perception. Getting 90 fights back.
I'm not really on anyone's side here. I own both consoles and historically have jumped between both platforms across the era. I tend to opt for the PS5 for a game that's available on both, but spend far more time browsing Game Pass than PS Plus, and recommend Xbox to my casual gamer friends. Not everyone is an Xbot or a Sony Pony. It just makes sense - if you want to have ten good games, you need to start with one. Starfield is the perfect game to be that one.
Obviously it would have been far better for Xbox if Redfall were a hit, or even if the heights of God of War were beyond it, if it were playable and relatively well received. Instead it has cast a cloud over Starfield, and Xbox's upcoming summer showcase. If Redfall was great, we'd be excited for the future, for the new-look Xbox, and be speculating about what it has tucked up its sleeve. Instead, we're not only down on Redfall, but as the first major release post-Xbox buying everything, it feels like a portent of doom.
Arkane could do no wrong... until it signed with Xbox. What does that mean for Bethesda? Fable? Perfect Dark? Redfall's failure is being taken as a failure not just of one game that arrived in a broken state with some outdated mechanics, but as a failure for the system. We all thought that with these acquisitions, Xbox would eventually challenge Sony's prestige outputs. While they were unknowns, we could imagine them however we liked. Now we've seen the fruits of this endeavour for the first time, and it is rotten mulch.
Starfield needs to be great to counter this. These worries will only settle until Starfield arrives. If Starfield confirms our fears that Xbox just can't make great games, and these acquisitions will drain the magic from once great studios or properties, the generation feels like a write-off already. If Starfield can reach the levels of Sony's biggest hits, these worries cease to exist. All Xbox needs is one great game. But it needs it very soon.